NO PLACE in the world is immune to the devastating consequences of climate change. Rising temperatures are fuelling environmental degradation, natural disasters and extreme weather, and leading to rising sea levels, melting ice caps, the death of coral reefs, acidification of lakes and forest fires. These effects are, in turn, leading to increased food and water insecurity, poverty, macroeconomic disruption, conflicts, terrorism and refugee flows. It is clear we cannot carry on in the same way. The cost of dealing with the effects of climate change is now greater than the amount being invested in emission reduction. The time to take action and slow down the trend is now.
The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regularly publishes reports on climate change and its impacts. The latest report was presented in March 2023 and summarises five years of research. It shows that current greenhouse gas emissions will lead to increased global warming that is likely to mean that we will exceed 1.5oC between 2030 and 2035. To stay below the 1.5oC target, emissions must be cut by at least 43 percent by 2030 compared with 2019 levels, and by at least 60 percent by 2035.
A study by Stanford University shows that climate change has increased economic inequality between developing and more developed countries by 25 percent since 1960. This is because climate change is a risk multiplier that exacerbates pre-existing challenges and hits developing countries and the poor the hardest. The World Bank estimates that the effects of climate change could push an additional 100 million people below the poverty line by 2030. In addition, climate change is leading to increased competition for resources such as land, food and water, fuelling socio-economic tensions and, increasingly, leading to mass displacement. According to the World Bank, more than 140 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and South Asia will be forced to migrate by 2050 if no action is taken.
However, research also shows that it is not too late to halt these developments. It will require major changes in society, such as how we produce food, use land, transport goods and electrify our economies. There are already technical solutions for more than 70 percent of today’s emissions, and the use of electric vehicles is increasing. In many places, renewable energy has become cheaper than fossil fuels, and investments in renewable energy sources are increasing at a much faster rate.
At the COP28 UN Climate Change Conference, negotiations finally led to an agreement which could mean “the beginning of the end” of fossil fuels. For the first time in 28 years, all countries in the world have agreed to make the transition. The capacity of renewable energy will triple by 2030 and the pace at which technical solutions for carbon capture and storage are developed will accelerate. An agreement was also reached on a framework to strengthen the efforts to achieve the global adaptation goals of the Paris Agreement.
A positive development for biodiversity is that in March, after more than 15 years of negotiations, the UN finally agreed on a new global agreement for the protection of marine biodiversity. Among other things, the agreement contains rules to limit environmental impact and create protected areas in the open seas, which make up around 95 percent of the volume of the world’s oceans. The agreement suggests that the UN’s goal of protecting 30 percent of the Earth’s surface by 2030 will be achievable.
